Each student is expected to post at least twice. For your original post, please select one probability problem to work on. Reply to at least one class member’s post. Replies should be meaningful. Avoid responses such as “Great job”, “I agree with you”, etc., that do not add content.

SAMPLE SPACES

1. A Girl Named Florida

Here’s a three-part puzzler. For each part list the sample space. Listing the sample space will make the probability clear. You can denote Boy as B, Girl as G, and Florida as F when listing a sample space. For example, the sample space of the birth events boy-girl and girl-girl is {BG, GG}.

1. Your friend has two children. What is the probability that both are girls?
2. Your friend has two children. You know for a fact that at least one of them is a girl. What is the probability that the other one is a girl?
3. Your friend has three children. One is a girl named Florida and one is a girl named Holley. What is the probability that the first child is a boy?

2. A Game Show

Let’s say you are a contestant on a game show. The host of the show presents you with a choice of 4 doors, which we will call doors 1, 2, 3, and 4. You do not know what is behind each door, but you do know that a new Cadillac Escalade and 3 old cars are randomly placed behind the doors. The host knows where the Escalade is. The game is played out is as follows. The host lets you choose a door. The host opens a door with an old car and asks you whether or not you want to change your door choice.

1. Visualization is a powerful tool. Download the 4-Door Game Show Worksheet Worksheet (<-- Click it).
2. Fill in the empty text boxes with Escalade or Old Car as determined by the sample spaces contestant keeps or switches doors.
3. Complete the calculation P(Win | Switch door) and P(Win | Keep door) by revising “?” to the number of favorable outcomes.
4. Attach your completed worksheet to your post.
5. Should the contestant switch doors?

PROBABILITY

3. A Birthday Problem

There are 30 people in this class.

a) What is the probability that at least 2 of the people in the class share the same birthday?

b) If P(at least 2 of the people in the class share the same birthday) = 25%, how many people are in the class?

4. Addition Rules and Real Estate

You are a realtor. In your area there are 50 starter homes, 75 mid value homes without solar power, 15 mid value homes with solar power, 35 high value homes without solar power, and 25 high value homes with solar power. If a home is picked randomly to show

a) What is the probability it has solar power and it is a mid-value home?

b) What is the probability it has solar power or it is a mid-value home?

c) What is the probability it has not solar power and not a mid-value home?

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

5. Disease Testing, True and False Positives

0.05% of adults over the age of 60 have lung cancer, 95% of adults who have lung cancer will test positive (the accuracy of the test for people with the disease), and 90% percent of adults that do NOT have lung cancer will test negative (accuracy of the test for people without the disease).

a) Compute the probability of having disease and testing positive (true positive)

b) Compute the probability of not having disease and testing positive (false positive).

c) Compute P(positive test).

d) Compute P(disease | test positive).

e) If somebody tests positive for that disease, is there a 99% chance that they have the disease?

6. Real Estate

You are a realtor. In your area there are 50 starter homes, 75 mid value homes without solar power, 15 mid value homes with solar power, 35 high value homes without solar power, and 25 high value homes with solar power. If a home is picked randomly to show,

Using the data, make your own conditional probability problem.

You must start a thread before you can read and reply to other threads
 

 

describes the clinical problem and the following:

• Reason for choosing this topic
• The PICOT question
• Possible integration of the evidenced that you found in clinical practice
• Methods to evaluate the effectiveness of implementation

Assignment

Create a Power Point

Purpose

This assignment will focus on developing a health policy analysis presentation that includes a problem statement, background, landscape, options, and recommendations from the week’s readings. The health policy analysis presentation is based on an identified healthcare issue in one’s local community. 

As Family Nurse Practitioner:

1. Research healthcare issues that have been identified in your local community. Develop a PowerPoint presentation with speaker notes. You will then use the PowerPoint during your Kaltura recording. Structure a health policy analysis presentation that addresses the following topics particular to your health problem:

· Problem Statement 

· Background 

· Landscape 

· Options 

· Recommendations 

Please provide FootNotes

2. Next, record your Kaltura presentation showing your PowerPoint and yourself speaking. Upload your Kaltura presentation into the week 4 assignment. How to use Kaltura resources are in Home/Resources/Technology Resources.

3. Posting your recording:

· Go to the week four assignment tab and hit Submit Assignment

· Use the Text Entry Tab. You will have the option of selecting the Kaltura icon.

· It will take you to your My Media Gallery and upload it from there.

 female who presents to the office with c/o wound to her left foot  

Signature Assignment: Create an Organizational Culture of Person-Centered Quality Health Care

There are two parts to complete your assignment for this week. Please review the instructions carefully.

Part 1:

 Access the Institute for Healthcare Improvement's Quality Improvement Essentials Toolkit at the link in your Weekly Resources. Once at the link, you may be prompted to create an account to access the IHI Toolkit and the Driver Diagram. By creating an account, you will have access to many resources provided by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement.  

 you will select the
Driver Diagram from the list of tools.

 Download the template and save the template to your computer with your standard file-naming protocol. Be sure this file name includes the words Driver Diagram. Note: When downloading the template using the Chrome browser and the download arrow, a message appears asking if the form is to be saved “with my changes” or “without my changes.” Be sure to save with your changes even if you haven't made any changes. This action will save the template with your work, otherwise, it will not be saved.

 Close your browser after saving the form.

 Find the file you just saved on your computer and open it up.

 Read the information about Drivers in the form and review the example in the template.

 Scroll down and start filling out the template using the title
Create an Organizational Culture of Person-Centered Quality Health Care as your Aim.

 Continue to fill out the entire diagram by reviewing your weekly reading assignments and conducting your own additional research.

An example of how the Driver Diagram should look as you begin filling in the template is shown in Figure 8. In this example, there are Primary Drivers listed which you may use in your diagram or you can select different Primary Drivers. 

Driver Diagram Example 

Part 2:

Once you have completed and saved your Driver Diagram, you will prepare a Perspective Paper discussing your rationale for selecting the Primary Drivers, the Secondary Drivers, and the specific ideas to move toward creating an organizational culture of person-centered quality health care. Keep in mind, your perspective will provide a reasoned argument why you selected the drivers and ideas.
Hint: A good method to use when preparing a perspective paper is the A-B-C-D-E method; answer the question why the selections were made, back up your decisions, critique your decisions, defend your decisions, and evaluate your decision against other alternatives.  

Be sure your Perspective Paper contains an Introductory section, a section with the Body of your report, and a Summary Section. In addition, you will submit your Driver Diagram in one of two ways. You may either take a screenshot of your completed Driver Diagram, paste it into a new Word document, crop it as seen in Figure 8, then right-click on the cropped area and select Save as Picture. Save the cropped area as a picture on your computer, giving it the same file name and the original Driver Diagram. Insert your saved picture of your Driver Diagram in your report as an Appendix. Enlarge the picture so it fills the Appendix page to the page margins. Be sure to consult APA formatting guidelines when using an Appendix. 

Alternately, in lieu of the Appendix page, you can upload your Driver Diagram as a separate document when you submit your Perspective Paper. Be sure to refer to the separate Driver Diagram document in your Summary Section.    

Part 1:
The Driver Diagram is one page if used as the Appendix in the Perspective Paper. If uploaded as a separate document, your completed Driver Diagram template is 1 page of the 4-page IHI document.  

Part 2: The Perspective Paper is a minimum of 3 pages, not including the title page, reference page, and Appendix page if used.

References: Include a minimum of 3 peer-reviewed resources. Other scholarly and credible sources may also be used as supplemental support.